The New Coronavirus COVID-19 -> Facts, Predictions & Travel Impacts
Another week, another barrier….or so it seems. The Universe does not seem keen on us traveling around these days, and the latest wrinkle in the plans seems to be COVID-19.
As yes, it’s finally arrived in Europe, and it looks like it’s here to stay, at least for a little while. Plus the news is going NUTS about it, as are the governments, which has a trickle-down impact on our lives, whether we want it to or not. And that brings me to the questions that a lot of people are asking themselves these days.
Will the new coronavirus change our travel plans? Should it? Do we even need to worry about it?
Now, I’m a very scientifically-centered gal so I tend to focus on numbers & science rather than react to hype. But I also can’t ignore the hype, as it affects our day-to-day life (e.g. if people decide to panic-buy, or closures & quarantines are enacted, for example). So I try to live in balance with all that by analyzing the data as best I can, monitoring the news, and then taking sensible precautions. At least that’s what I attempt to do!
Since this seems to be the “hot topic” of the day, I thought I’d share all this on the blog, including some of the facts behind COVID-19, my own personal predictions on how this thing is going to play out and what we’re doing about it.
Hopefully this will help so that you can make your own decisions in the face of this mega-news item, without panic (as should always be the case). Here goes….
UPDATED INFO: For those of you just landing here, things have progressed very rapidly over the last few weeks. Please see my updated post on all this as of March 15th COVID-19 Needs Action -> Decide Where You Wanna Be, And Go There Now
What Is COVID-19?
COVID-19 (original name “2019 novel coronavirus”) is a coronavirus. Coronaviruses are actually a whole family of viruses that can cause respiratory illness in both animals and humans. Some previous ones that you might have heard of (for humans) are SARS and MERS. COVID-19 is simply the most recently discovered virus. It’s brand new and was first reported in Wuhan, China at the end of December of last year.
Isn’t It Just Like The Flu? Or A Cold?
No, it’s not. People who catch it may exhibit typical flu-like symptoms (e.g. fever, cough), but there are specific differences (e.g. breathing difficulties/shortness of breath).
Also it’s more contagious than the flu (higher R0) and the death rate from COVID-19 is currently much higher. Latest info shows a 3.4% global death rate (as reported by WHO on Mar 3rd, 2020) as compared to typical annual flu death rates of ~0.1%. That is significant.
For factual purposes it’s important to understand that the death rate quoted above is only based on known cases, and is highly skewed towards older or immune-compromised people. For young & healthy people, current data indicates that COVID-19 is really no more deadly than regular flu (see below for more on this).
These numbers could all change of course, as the virus spreads and we learn more about it. This is simply the current info we have from official sources.
More Info: “How Does The New Coronavirus Compare With The Flu”
COVID-19 Is Here (And IMO It Can’t Be Contained)
I’ve been closely tracking the progression of this new coronavirus since it was first announced in China at the end of December. Once the cat was out of the bag (which alas, took a while) the Chinese went full gear into containment mode. For a while it seemed like their efforts actually might work, but despite massive closures/confinements it wasn’t enough. Once the first cases spread out of China to other Asian countries, and then (more recently) to Europe and USA, containment was IMO a lost cause.
WHO has recognized the spread. As of this week they raised the risk assessment for COVID-19 from “high” to “very high” in both EU & USA, although they have not yet labeled it a pandemic (= a new disease that has spread globally). I think that’s just a matter of time.
Here are the facts:
- COVID-19 is fairly infectious. From current data, the infection rate (R0) of COVID-19 is estimated to be ~2.2 which means that on average, one person infects 2.2 others. It’s not as crazy infectious as something like say, measles but it’s pretty darn good at getting around.
- Testing hasn’t kept up. There have not been enough test kits to keep up with the spread of the virus. In USA, initial kits were faulty and had to be recalled so as of Mar 1st there have only been 459 people tested (in the country!). Compare this to 65,000 people tested in S.Korea. Basically we’re waaay behind the curve in testing, which means the virus is way in front of us in terms of getting around.
- There’s no herd immunity or vaccine. The other key thing about COVID-19 is that it’s a new virus with no herd immunity (no previous immunity in the population) and no existing vaccines. In other words, there’s really not much to slow it down.
Given all these facts I personally believe COVID-19 is going to continue spreading and quite rapidly too. Cases have already spread well beyond what we know and IMO containment simply isn’t a reasonable expectation anymore.
But It’s Not Going To Last Forever
If you’re a numbers type person it’s useful to know that most viral infections follow a “normal(ish) distribution” type curve, with very rapid rises in infections early on, peaking off at some maximum after which they more slowly start to drop off. How long those curves last just depends on the virus and how quickly/effectively containment measures are enacted, but they all end, at least for the instance of that particular outbreak (viruses can re-emerge, mutate or return seasonally).
Based on the data that I’ve seen so far for COVID-19, infections in China seem to have (maybe, possibly?) reached their peak and may actually be edging to the other side of the curve (new infection rates are reportedly starting to drop). If those numbers hold, this means it’s taken around 2 months for the virus to “peak” in China and things should improve over the next few months. This is encouraging news.
Here in Europe & in USA however we are only at the very beginning of the curve, with infections just starting to rise (over the last few weeks). As a result I predict that over the next few weeks we’re going to see a very rapid rise in infection rates across EU & USA, which probably won’t peak until several months from now. Hopefully, after that the virus will slowly fizzle out again.
This is all my personal inference and I could easily be wrong, but it seems to make sense, based on the data and what has happened so far in China.
For Most People COVID-19 Symptoms Are Mild
Although COVID-19 is fairly infectious, it has low death rates, especially in young people. And this should be very comforting news for the general population!
According to the current numbers, if you’re young and healthy, COVID-19 seems to be fairly benign. For ~80% of people symptoms will be mild or moderate (source: WHO) and for healthy people in age ranges 0-50 there is over 99% cure rate. That’s exceptionally high, and means your chances of anything bad happening are really, really low.
With that said, even if you’re in the young & healthy group you should still take sensible precautions, for the sake of those around you. Although this thing may be mostly benign for the young, it affects us all and that is something we must be very vigilant of (see below).
More Info: 12 Coronavirus Myths Busted By Science
However Older Or Immune Compromised Do Need To Be Vigilant
If you are older or immune compromised, however you do need to be more vigilant as the numbers change dramatically with age.
An analysis of ~72,000 cases (from Chinese Center For Disease Control And Prevention) showed that for those over 70, death rates were ~8%, and for those over 80 the number rose to ~15%. For immune-compromised people or those with pre-existing medical conditions (heart disease, diabetes etc.) death rates hovered ~6-10% rate. Those are not insignificant numbers so if you are in those categories, or have family in those categories you shouldn’t ignore them.
Note that this does not mean you should panic, but if you are in a more vulnerable group you do need to be aware of the risks, prepare yourself appropriately and take sensible precautions (see below).
So What Precautions Are Sensible?
This is the nitty gritty of the matter. Even if you’re in the younger group, it’s important to take basic precautions not only for your own sake, but also for the sake of people (older, immune compromised) who may come into contact with you. The following simple precautions are recommended by WHO, and literally everyone can do them:
- Wash Your Hands Often. This is probably the #1 thing you can do to keep yourself healthy. Washing you hands in soapy water will kill any virus on your hands. Alcohol-based hand sanitizer also works. So wash your hands, often and wash them thoroughly.
- Keep Surfaces & Clothes Clean. Current understanding is that the virus can persist on surfaces for a few hours, possibly up to several days. So, cleaning surfaces with disinfectant is a good precaution. Also, if you suspect your clothing may have the virus on it, then washing them will take care of that.
- Practice Social Distancing. Stay away from folks with obvious symptoms and cover your mouth & nose with a flexed elbow or a tissue if you sneeze or cough. If you’re sick, stay home. In France specifically, the government has also recommended that folks do not shake hands and do not kiss on the cheek (“faire les bises”) as they traditionally do when they meet.
For the older or immune compromised, I would personally add some additional recommendations:
- Avoid Big Crowds. Less interactions = less chance of catching the virus. If you’re older or immune compromised it makes sense to avoid tightly crowded areas.
- Order Critical Medications. If you are on critical meds, I do think it’s a good idea to talk to your doc/pharmacist at this time about stocking-up on a few months of them. There’s no need to go crazy here, but getting a little extra stock while this thing plays out is IMO a sensible idea.
That’s it really. Simple stuff, nothing panicky, nothing crazy, but small, sensible precautions.
What About Stocking Up On Food?
Sadly, this is where panic & hype can come in to play.
I would not be surprised to see folks start panic-buying as soon as infection rates rise a little more in both USA & Europe (and that’s likely to happen very soon!). It’s human nature, and unfortunately I’ve seen it happen before. I don’t think you should panic-buy, but I also don’t think you can avoid what’s coming so it’s worth planning ahead, especially if you need to self-isolate.
What we’ve done in our family is stock-up on several weeks of food (food & drink that we will consume anyway, plus some durable dry goods), as well as some household basics (toilet paper, cleaners, tissues etc.), medications and pet food. Nothing crazy, but enough to get us by if we need to self-isolate for 14 days or hang back for a little while. Personally, I think that’s being sensible and prepared, without going over board. I advise you do the same.
What About Face Masks?
Face masks are really popular whenever viruses like this crop up (you see them all over social media), but according to the CDC & WHO they are not recommended unless you are sick yourself or caring for a sick person.
Also, in order to be effective the masks need to be a specific type (N95), and discarded after just one use. So, they are not fully effective unless you get the right ones, change them regularly and use them properly.
NOTE/ It’s important to know that many of the masks you can buy on the internet are not authentic. There are lots of suspect sellers out there (incl. on Amazon) selling sketchy products, so please beware of this.
At the moment we’re not buying any, and will not do so unless the official recommendations change. As this thing progresses they will become crazy pricey and a precious resource. Besides, the professionals (doctors, hospitals, nurses etc.) need them first and foremost, so any existing mask stock should go to them.
More Info: WHO COVID-19 Myth Busters
What If You Think You Have Been Infected, Or Have Symptoms?
The guidance is really clear here.
If you think you have been infected, or begin to feel unwell then stay at home. Simply self-isolate, rest & monitor yourself. This way you don’t infect anyone else, and you don’t become an unnecessary burden on the hospital system. For most folks this will be all they need to do. Remember, if you’re young & healthy your symptoms are likely to be mild, and you have over 99% chance of recovering!
If your symptoms develop (e.g. fever, cough, breathing difficulties) then call emergency services. They will take it from there.
In France, guidelines are the same. France has actually been quite proactive on COVID-19, in part because they’ve had some terrible experiences with flu outbreaks in the past. As of today there is a free info number for anyone wanting information on COVID-19: 0 800 130 000. In addition, if you have symptoms then you are advised to call SAMU at 15. They will assess your case and either ask you to self-isolate or take you in to one of the 108 hospitals that have been “activated” across the country to deal with the new coronavirus.
Will It Affect Travel? Yes
This is where the rubber hits the road, especially for those of us who like to travel.
My opinion is that this new coronavirus has already affected travel and will continue to do so over the next few months. Whether it’s hype or over-reaction, the truth is that governments, cruise ships and airlines ARE reacting to the virus, so you will see effects in your day-to-day travels, whether you like it or not.
It’s already started too. In Italy ~11 towns in the Northern region have been locked down, and the Venice carnival celebrations were cut short. In France several events have already been cancelled, schools have been closed in the Oise, and they’ve banned gatherings larger than 5,000. I expect more cancellations & closures as infection levels rise.
All this will impact airlines & tourism quite heavily, and I know folks who’ve already had their vacays cancelled (e.g. cruise ships cancelling) or are re-assessing their plans. If you have plane travel planned over the next few months I recommend either buying exchangeable tickets, or getting “cancel for any reason” travel insurance (covers ~75%), just to maximize your flexibility.
For motorhome travelers in EU specifically, there’s currently not much impact. All borders are open and all campgrounds (except in heavily affected areas) seem to be operating as usual. That could easily change however, as infection levels rise and city closures or quarantines get enacted.
For RVers in the USA it’s about the same (not much impact at the moment). However if we were fulltime RVing in the USA right now, we’d probably be making plans to stay in lesser populated areas, just until we see how all this plays out.
Basically if you’re on wheels, staying aware and staying flexible is your best option right now. And thankfully being on wheels makes that easily possible!
So, Why Are You Guys Not Heading Out?
Our original plan was to head out in LMB to Spain next week, and then we saw the first infections crop up. Based on what I’d been reading about the virus & its spread in Asia, I knew this was likely the beginning of the “beast” here in Europe. If it were just us, that may not have changed our plans too much. After all, we’re both young and healthy, in the “low worry” group.
But we’re not alone. We live with dad who is older (in the much more vulnerable group), and that’s important. We have to be vigilant for his sake, and think of how closures might affect our getting back here, if needed. Plus I have to admit I’m not keen on being quarantined somewhere else, if one of us happens to catch this thing. There’s our comfort to think of in all this too.
So we’ve decided, for all our sakes to hang back and see how the see how the numbers & news play out over the next few weeks, before we make any next plans. This thing is here and it’s spreading fast so I think we’ll know quite quickly how the various European countries are going to react. Anyway it’s just another short delay right?
Where Can I Keep Up To Date On The News?
There is lots and lots of news coverage going on about COVID-19, but also lots of unnecessary worry. If you want the “real deal” I recommend sticking to official sources of info. In specific the following links:
WHO Website: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
Official French Website: https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus
And for those interested in tracking the virus numbers in real time
Global Cases of COVID-19: https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/global-cases-covid-19/
Coronavirus Worldmeter Tracker: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Hopefully this was helpful to you all, giving you some facts to make your own decisions, outside of the panic. So, what are you doing? Are you traveling? Or staying still? Worried, or not worried at all? DO share in the comments below.
We are hoping you are right and this whole thing plays out before it blows up our Europe plans!
I really do think this will all be over by summer. We’re going to have a few months of craziness, but then it should all start calming down. Fingers and paws crossed.
Nina
When it does level off, it’s important that governments continue efforts to be prepared, as COVD-19 might rear its ugly head again next fall/winter. Thanks, Nina, for an always thoughtful and objective analysis.
Nina, thanks for the details. You are really like a scientist with good analysis and decision. Though the COVID-19 cases in Taiwan is still low ( 40 ) compare to the other countries of Asia, I started worrying. Your article makes me feel more calm.
Let us keep safe and heathly. Very soon, you and Paul will be on the road again.
I’m glad I could help create some calm! I think Taiwan is about the same level as Europe & USA right now (beginning of the curve in infections) so you will probably see some increases over the next weeks. But for most people (and you are still young!!), it is really nothing to worry too much about. Health and happiness to your family.
Nina
Nina, I read where one of the pet dog of one of the Washington state patients had tested positive for a “low level” version of the virus and was put into quarantine too. So keep Polly safe too.
Yes, I read this too. A dog tested “weak positive” in Hong Kong too (just a a few days ago). Whether or not pets can catch COVID-19 humans is currently still being investigated. Human to pet transmission has happened before (e.g. during the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 2009), so it’s not out of the question. But it’s also not been confirmed yet for COVID-19 in particular. That said, this is one area of the news that I’m tracking very closely.
Thanks for bringing it up!
Nina
National Parks that hire international students are probably going to be short staffed. But I have also heard that large tour buses of international travelers are expected to cancel their Yellowstone trips. So it might be a good time to visit the national parks with fewer visitors.
There is that upside!! I didn’t talk about it in the post, but the fact that lots of folks will likely stay home during these next few months might make it a great time to go see some national parks.
Nina
Thank you for the fact-based information. The hype is real around here!
It’s getting “real” here too. LOTS of news coverage in France at the moment, and I think it’s just starting and will inevitably get worse as infection rates rise. The next months are going to be difficult.
Nina
It is 90 degrees F in Australia and they have covid-19 there. This isn’t a flu, it is much more like SARS.
Indeed. The virus is officially a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), so there is quite a lot of overlap with the original SARS. It is also worldwide at this point. The fact that WHO hasn’t declared it a pandemic yet is simply a matter of time.
Nina
According to the CDC-It is not yet known whether weather and temperature impact the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months. At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing.
Yes you are absolutely right. We don’t know yet whether summer/hot weather will affect the virus. I’m basing my predictions (that the virus will calm down by summer) mainly on the fact that the infection curve seems to have peaked in China, and is now on the other (decreasing) side. If that’s the case, and EU/USA infections follow the same path then infections in our areas should peak in a few months and then (hopefully) also decrease.
But again, all this is simply assumption at this point! The virus could mutate, or prolong (hopefully not). We’ll just have to keep watching the curves to see how it all plays out.
Nina
One of the major reasons that the virus has peaked in China is because of their extreme measures in shutting down entire cities. Had nothing to do with the weather. IMHO it will get a lot worse for the rest of world before it gets better.
Great information and article Nina. I’m wondering the same thing about traveling even here in the US. I’m in Southern CA and leaving for AZ on Thursday. Time will tell I guess. The panicky news even has me on pins and needles as I’m in the higher risk age group.
Honestly I think you’ll be ok as long as you practice the standard, safe measures (washing hands often, disinfecting etc.). Personally I’d also advise stocking up a few essentials and avoiding the higher population areas for now (e.g. Vegas). Focus your travels on some lower populated areas, at least while we see how this all this plays out. I know it seems scary, especially for older folks, but try not to fret too much. You’re uniquely positioned to avoid the big areas, thanks to your wheels.
Nina
Great update as usual Nina! My wife and I have been discussing a more low key travel year to stay in some less populated areas. As full time RVers, we make reservations well in advance and have already booked our destinations through August. Now we may cancel those, stock up on food and supplies and hunker down until it blows over.
I personally think most of this will be over by August (fingers and paws crossed), so I probably wouldn’t cancel any reservations yet unless they really don’t meet your travel plans. I’d probably just keep them going, and hunker down a bit until you see how all this plays out. At least that’s what I’d do if we were still fulltiming.
Nina
Appreciate your normal style of information sharing, with just a dash of anti hype hysteria avoiding… Lot’s to ponder as this evolved, and then eventually fades away. Common sense, and cool headed people – living their lives cautiously but not panicked – could help calm, and contain the herd mentality to, well, herd:)!
Stay safe, have fun, and best to all,
Smitty
That’s exactly the approach I hope to foster! It’s hard not to panic when people are panicking around you (and governments too), but there are science facts here which should comfort anyone who is rationally-minded. That said, I do think it’s going to get a bit crazy over the next month or so as infection levels rise. That’s just the nature of the “beast”, and this one seems to have gripped the media and the world in a particularly special way.
We’ll do our best to foster calm thro’ it all!
Nina
@nextstrain on twitter is publishing the sequencing of the genomes of Covid-19. Here is one thread.
https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1233881569363804161
It’s pretty cool, they’re sequencing and then publishing the variations, and can tell where a strain came from. The current theory is that the two seemingly unrelated cases in Washington state are closely related, and that its been circulating under the radar for awhile. The science behind all of this is amazing.
Paul caught that Twitter recently, and yes, the science is super interesting!! The fact that it’s been circulating for a while doesn’t surprise me either (If i recall correctly the gene sequencing estimated 6 weeks?). Fascinating stuff.
Nina
I trust your information thoroughly in almost everything, including this. Thank you for the updates, the current information and links. I am in the 70 plus and Mo turned 80 today, so we need to be vigilant, as you are doing with your dad. The hype is crazy, but the reality of those death rates for certain groups was a bit scary looking. Time to stay home, lay low, and skip the big crowds, or shopping at any big stores either. Thanks, Nina, for all this information
I think that is a very sensible approach. Wish you both good health and calm in all this.
Nina
Thanks for the European take on the virus. We are supposed to leave for a four month European cruise on April 22. Still planning on going. Figure when it shows up everywhere then people will stop closing ports in the hope it will miss them. We are always very careful about taking care of our health when we are on a cruise.
Hmmm….yeah, no idea what April will look like. If the virus follows the same kind of infection rate curve in Europe as it did in China then we may still be in the very midst of it by then. Hopefully all will be well, but if not then I hope the cruise company will do the right thing and either refund (or credit) you if they decide to cancel. Crossing fingers for you!
Nina
Good information and advice, thank you and good luck!
Thanks so much Nina for as always your factual information. I really need to head to Arkansas soon but am considering driving instead of flying. And as someone who was employed by the company making those surgical masks–you are totally correct about the masks and the mask the model is wearing in your photo is basically worthless–protects you against very little and only if changed often. When I see dental technicians wearing those masks I always have the urge to warn them.
YES!!! I’m so glad you chimed in Janna. I read a lot about masks before I wrote the blog post, so I have some basic knowledge now even tho’ I’m not “in the field”. Like you said the majority of masks that are sold on the internet are not effective against the virus. It’s good to hear from a professional like you.
Nina
Hello Nina and Paul, We almost met a few years ago at Valley Of The Rogue State Park in Oregon. Lots of good clear and accurate information that you have (as you always do) offered to share with your readers. Thank you so much for that. I am 74 this year and have lived with COPD for over 15 years. A few thoughts that I have learned to practice on a regular basis: When I hear someone cough or sneeze like in a grocery store. I don’t go near the area or down the isle. Also the fact that someone sneezes into the elbow area does not seem like a good idea. Most of it just flies in two directions. I always have had a handkerchief in my pocket for that use since I was a little boy living in Amsterdam. My wife and I live in Oregon and have a full year of medicine and survival food. Also for our cats. The trailer we have parked nearby is also prepped for evacuation if needed. And we are also locked and loaded. As for wearing a mask. If the infected person wears it to stop virus from escaping into the environment, wouldn’t it also prevent a non-infected person from inhaling that airborne virus. Just asking!
Those are good tips. And yes, a handkerchief or tissue is better than an elbow if you’re sneezing, but that tends to be something most Americans don’t carry on a regular basis (it’s so much more common in UK, for example). It’s a good tip to do so however. Sounds like you are VERY well prepped to handle all this, and rightly so given your COPD.
As for the masks, if you are sick and use a mask, it does help to keep droplets in (i.e. to prevent you infecting others). They’re not infallible and they need to be worn correctly (and discarded/changed often), but it does help.
Nina
Good to have your thoughts. We’re healthy, but 71 and 63. We were thinking of a cruise on the east coast (USA) in May, but decided against it. We’re wondering if we should fly in May? We’ll continue to monitor the infections. Thanks for your thoughts and information. Be safe.
May might be fine. A bit hard to know at this point. If you can I’d advise buying tickets that are changeable, just to keep some flexibility.
Nina
As always your information is invaluable, my husband is 70 and has celiac disease , yesterday we were at the gym ready to sign up but their computers were down, an Omen I guess, it’s cold here in Ohio, but we’re going to stick to walking in the fresh cold air as apposed to the recycled potential germ filled air of a crowded gym.
Certainly sounds like the Universe was looking out for you on that gym membership! And yes, clean outdoor activity is a great idea at this time. Nothing better than a good walk in nature, for both heart and mind.
Nina
Being ages 72 and 73 we are in a vulnerable group. But since we stopped RVing I mostly self isolate, anyway. If I get it, it will be because Dave brought it home. We don’t either one seeing him isolating unless he gets actual symptoms, though. We’ve decided to watch for the breathing problems as that is the one mostly likely to identify one as having this specific type of flu.
Sounds like a good and sensible approach. Wish you all the best, and good health.
Nina
Best most comprehensive brief I’ve read to date.
Thank you.
Are you planning on returning to the states?
How about trips to the Alps? Any planned?
Thank for the summary.
No current plans to return to the States at this point (I think we’ll stay Europe-side for a while), but I do hope to visit the mountains here! Hopefully all this virus palava will blow over in a few months and we can get on with some travel. We’ll see!
Nina
Nice run down. If you’re interested, the best article I read on this topic was this one in the Atlantic last week- https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/ In short, 40-70% of people on Earth by this point can expect to get the coronavirus, because so many people don’t show symptoms. So obviously the concern is not for many of us personally, but protecting our vulnerable populations and anticipating potential strains (like, make sure your pantry is full now so if there are some sick truck drivers later you’re not overloading a strained system).
Personally I can work from home but am more planning ahead because I think quarantine sounds really boring if you live in a small apartment don’t think ahead a bit about it.
Exactly! Although most of us won’t be majorly impacted by this virus (e.g if we catch it we’ll only have mild symptoms, or we’ll recover very quickly), we have to think of our more vulnerable population, and the potential overload on our health services. That’s the main reason to adopt good practices, plan ahead and self-isolate if you feel unwell (even if you are young and healthy). Spot on!
Nina
What a great article! It’s so refreshing to read a cool calculated down-to-earth appraisal, as we’d expect from our Nina! I wanted to ask – while NOT intending this to get political, or racist, and yet I guess by nature it kind-of does – while doing all your research, did you pick up any suggestions that (a) this virus was ‘man-made’ and maybe created to disrupt China’s conquering of the world with all their international trading (ie “funny it originated in China”) and (b) did I read somewhere it mostly targeted ‘Chinese blood’ (if there is such a thing?!) more than other races? Though we know it has affected ‘westerners’ too. Sorry I could have worded all this differently but my brain isn’t able just now!
No, this virus was not man-made, and it doesn’t target any specific kind of race (all of the worlds population shares the same 4 basic blood types A, B, AB and O. There are zero differences). That is simply conspiracy stuff, although I know it’s a theory that has circulated in certain corners of the news. It just doesn’t make any sense scientifically.
This is a Coronavirus, and it transmitted from animal to man in the wild animal wet markets of Wuhan. Its a big news item mostly because it is new (and transmitting so fast), so it’s rich fodder for conspiracies. But in truth it’s no different from many other viruses that we’ve dealt with in history or that we deal with everyday. This is a biological progression, something that originated in animals (possibly bats), then transmitted to other wild animals and then jumped to humans as a result of poor food practices.
There is lots we can do to improve and prevent these kinds of viruses in the future (e.g. close certain wet markets, eliminate wild animal trade), but there’s nothing deeper to it than that.
Nina
As always you are on top of things, Nina. This is great info.
As for us currently in the high seas when this thing erupted Viking immediately canceled initially our port stop in HK and China and informed us before we arrived in Sydney. Then all hell broke loose a week later and the next big change in our itinerary was the cancellation of all Southeast Asia port stops. As to be expected there was a lot of restlessness and anxiety on board but most of us are now calm. The unexpected financial offering from Viking is a 30% of our Total Cost as compensation for the 14 ports that we will miss due to rerouting of our itinerary and a refund of the remaining should any of us decided to end the cruise at the next segment in Bali, Indonesia.
Each day our captain reminded us to wash our hands and there is an attendant at the entrance of our World Cafe (buffet) making sure we wash our hands before entering the restaurant 🙂
I’m so glad your cruise ship has been so proactive! That’s exactly what you’d hope and expect from Viking. Continued good travels, and good health to you.
Nina
Great information. Thank you for the effort to pull this together. Calm is needed and information fights panic.
Nina,
I know you’ll hear this a thousand times but Thank You! I was just avoiding all coverage of this because I didn’t trust anyone to actually deliver news. But I trust you and how you look at things because I look at things the same way. So thank you for doing the research I wasn’t willing to do!
I now have armed myself with information, I am not afraid (Because honestly, what does that help??), and I know what I need to do at this time. And I will stay aware of what’s on the WHO website.
I always appreciate your take on things. A sane and soulful voice on so many topics.
An excellent article – thank you Nina! We are considering a trip to Europe this summer so it’s refreshing not only to read your well researched, drama-free article but also get a perspective on the situation in Europe. We tend to agree that we feel the hype will die down by summer and our Aug-Sept trip will hopefully still happen, but holding off making any bookings in the new time. If you don’t mind, we would love to share this article link with our audience for them to read and keep some perspective.
Please go ahead and share! Safe & healthy travels to you both.
Nina
RVLove published a link to this article and I think it was spot on. I believe that you may have missed a very important point, though. I always worry about the oldest and youngest among us and believe it we, in the middle, that bear the responsibility to make sure that they are safe and taken care of. Any contagious disease is a big deal for them and therefore should be a big deal for the everyone. It looks like we could carry this disease for about 2 weeks before we display symptoms, how many seniors could we infect in that time? So, it may not be a big deal if I get sick but I have a responsibility to my fellow citizens to stay as contagion free as possible. Thats my $.02 USD anyway. Thanks for sharing, and stay safe.
Absolutely. I did mention this in my section “sensible precautions”, but it is very important and definitely worth mentioning again. This is not just about us, but also all those around us. Appreciate your comment.
Nina
P.S. I just updated the article to make this even clearer, by adding an extra NOTE to the “young persons” section. Thanks for the feedback.
Thank you for this excellent post. I know it was a lot of work to put together and I just want to show my appreciation. Good health to you and your family
Thank you Hemma. I hope it helps bring some perspective. Good health to you and yours as well.
Nina
Wonderful post. Thank you. Here we are well into this virus and there is still no significant testing/tracking being done in USA. My little city of Cape Canaveral is the second busiest cruise port in the world. Thousands come and go here from all over the world every week, yet we are not listed as having a case here which is absurd on its face. Add to that Disney, spring break and bike week. Hundreds of motorcycles roaring past my door this week from Daytona intermingling with residents. So to me your hopeful news, using countries like China, as a model about when we can expect the virus to start downward might not be a valid comparison. How do you factor in the indifference of a government which is doing almost nothing for containment or tracking? Will this cause the outbreak last longer in your opinion? Or will it burn itself out quicker because more people will get it immediately? I’ve got food for about 30 days but I’m now thinking that is not long enough. The really critical times might not begin to happen for another two weeks which will force me to resupply in the middle of the worst of an outbreak since I will have already used 2 weeks of my current supply. I’m 73 with hypertension so these questions of supply so I can stay isolated are important to me. There just aren’t enough hospital beds so I want to stay virus free by staying away from people as much as possible. If you were me would you break isolation to get more food now? Or does 30 days supply from today seem sufficient? Thirty days is better than nothing but is it good enough?
Those are all VERY valid questions. In fact I’m writing another post today (will be out soon) about containment measures and what impacts they can have on the infection curve. The US hasn’t tracked this thing nearly well enough, and they will need to implement stricter containment measures very soon, if they don’t want the impact on their health services to get out of control.
As for your food question, it’s a tough one. Looking at the numbers today I do think this whole thing could last several more months both in USA & Europe, and I totally get your concern about wanting to isolate as much as possible during that time. In fact here in France the government just requested all seniors to stay indoors as much as possible (Macron announced this last night). So, we’re already seeing those restrictions, and since we live with dad (who is “of age”) those restrictions now apply to us too.
For now, I’m still going out shopping with some sensible precautions. I’m shopping less frequently, I try to hit the store when it’s quieter, I use hand sanitizer before/after I shop, and I wash my hands thoroughly when I get home. At some point I may switch to online shopping….we’ll see.
In your case it’s hard to know what’s the right course of action. It’s impossible to know how bad (or perhaps not!) things are in your area until testing & diagnosis catches up, and there’s a fine line between being prepared and being overly paranoid.
Is online shopping with delivery a possibility for you? If so, then you have options. If not, perhaps online shopping & pick-up by car (Click’n Shop kind of thing)? I know many stores offer this in the US, including Walmart. Even if you need to drive a bit further to pick up the groceries, this might be an easy way to get your daily supplies while limiting interactions?
I wish I had more concrete answers, but we’re all guessing at this point. Hopefully that helps a bit with some ideas. Best wishes & good health to you!
Nina